Good News ... for now

A tropical weather system near Mexico’s Yucatan peninsula is weakening and has a less than 30 percent chance of intensifying into a tropical cyclone over the next 24 hours, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said.

Tropical Wave could be First Named Storm

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NORTHEASTWARD TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF THE WAVE REMAINS POORLY-DEFINED...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM ONCE IT MOVES INTO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND ON SUNDAY. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA AND COULD SPREAD NORTHWARD TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG
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Future Storms?

Looks like the National Hurricane Center is keeping a watchful eye on two systems (see map on right).

1. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT A BROAD SURFACE CIRCULATION COULD BE FORMING. ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SQUALLY WEATHER OVER PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD AND SOUTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

2. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS HAS DECREASED THIS EVENING. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE...BUT SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS STILL POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

I'm just going to keep the shutters on the rear of the house closed except on the dining room side of the house so I can keep lookout over my car.